to wait or not

[frozenstarz]

hey all

 

recently been thinking come back to the jeep family, been looking at the jku's and wondering wether the arrival of the jl and increased availability will help reduce the current jk prices, i assume they hold so well due to the previous limited supplies to the uk. what do you guys all think? mainly i dont want to buy and next year have lost a chunk of value due to the jl. 

 

cheers

[V]

A 2.0L turbo setup for a stock JL may be fine, but can it move a JLU on 37" tyres with aftermarket bumpers? I am pretty sure anyone with a modded 2.8 or 3.6L JKU will probably hang on to it until they see a modded JL that can overtake them. Jeepers leasing stockers will just roll on to the next model if nothing better interests them to tempt them away.

 

The values of used vehicles are unlikely to drop while leases are being sold on new vehicles at the same rates or higher each year. It is not in the leasing company's interest for used values to drop. As long as they can keep residuals high they are making money. The more people that lease vehicles the less likely any of us are going to see depreciation like it was 10 years ago. The days of affordable used vehicles to buy between 5 and 10 years old are over - for the time being.

 

When there are no more people left that can afford to lease, and no more people left at the bottom of the chain to buy expensive off-lease vehicles to own, then inflated values will drop. Either that or off-lease vehicles will quietly go for dismantling to keep used vehicles in short supply and thus keep the lease prices of new vehicles artificially high. If this happens the entry level price of having a personal vehicle will increase and people with lower incomes will be excluded from keeping a car. The car industry no longer sells cars, they sell financial products. You get a car as part of the deal but its value isn't the same as the financial product you are buying.

 

When sub-prime leasing in the USA gets to the point where the majority are defaulting and there simply isn't anyone left credit worthy to lease a repo'd car, then residuals will fall and lease prices of new cars will fall. Lots of people will be making the same monthly payments for using vehicles that now suddenly are no longer worth what they thought they should be. Banks will start making massive losses on unpaid financial products and will be left with repo'd stock of depreciating mechanical assets that they can't shift. Bailouts will be back again.

 

[nickwalk]

From my experience of buying a JKU as it sat on the boat from the US, I'd wait a little longer for the new model niggles to be dealt with before making the change. With my JKU, I ended up telling the dealer what was wrong with it and supplying the TSB info they needed to fix it!

 

Saying that, after seeing the new JL at Jeep camp in a couple of weeks, I might just eat my words!!!!

[frozenstarz]

hey all

sorry might be some confusion here, im not after the JL, though that would be nice. my question is, with the arrival in sept of the JL will current JK prices in the uk come down faster than they have been, seems they are very good value holders currently but that might be because of the limited supplies the UK got from jeep. so is it worth to wait and get the JK cheaper or do you think the values will not change too much with the JL arrival here.

[neal]

1 hour ago, frozenstarz said:

hey all

sorry might be some confusion here, im not after the JL, though that would be nice. my question is, with the arrival in sept of the JL will current JK prices in the uk come down faster than they have been, seems they are very good value holders currently but that might be because of the limited supplies the UK got from jeep. so is it worth to wait and get the JK cheaper or do you think the values will not change too much with the JL arrival here.

I think there are still too many unknown variables with the JL to be able to guess at this.

 

With no 3.6 in the JL in the UK, what will the available engines actually perform like, both petrol and CRD?

 

What price point will the JL sit at. Saw a special edition JKU, based off of a Sahara, at my local dealer for £40.5K So where does that leave the JL? Let alone the JLUR.......

 

JL availability? This will have an impact on JK price, just not sure in what direction. If the JL is really easy to get hold of, then price should reflect that.

 

From my experience buying both my JKU’s finding something that fits your needs is the driving factor. Especially if your not buying new.

 

If you are going to modify, then it might be easier in the short term with a JK, but the US companies seem to be sorting the JL out really quick.

 

Also, it’s going to depend on how long you are going to keep it, what every it turns out to be. Keep it long enough and the loss in value is made up for in smiles per ride. Well at least till you park next to the modified JL.........

[fen01]

15 hours ago, neal said:

I think there are still too many unknown variables with the JL to be able to guess at this.

 

With no 3.6 in the JL in the UK, what will the available engines actually perform like, both petrol and CRD?

 

What price point will the JL sit at. Saw a special edition JKU, based off of a Sahara, at my local dealer for £40.5K So where does that leave the JL? Let alone the JLUR.......

 

JL availability? This will have an impact on JK price, just not sure in what direction. If the JL is really easy to get hold of, then price should reflect that.

 

From my experience buying both my JKU’s finding something that fits your needs is the driving factor. Especially if your not buying new.

 

If you are going to modify, then it might be easier in the short term with a JK, but the US companies seem to be sorting the JL out really quick.

 

Also, it’s going to depend on how long you are going to keep it, what every it turns out to be. Keep it long enough and the loss in value is made up for in smiles per ride. Well at least till you park next to the modified JL.........

 

I think price may become a big issue.  Reading the review done in the Sun, they had the 2 door listed at £44k.  Would this mean the 4 door will come in around £50k?  This is a lot of money for what the vehicle is....  I appreciate why the cost is high: production costs, import duties etc..  but this places what is in effect a utility SUV in the luxury SUV market bracket.

 

I currently run a 2015 JKU CRD.  For me to replace I'd only really want to go one way, which is with 3.6 V6 Pentastar.  As it has been confirmed the engines for the UK will be 2.0 & 2.2, I can't warrant paying this sort of money for such a small engine....

 

So, my only options are to pay the balloon payment at the end of my lease, or look to import a US 3.6 JL.

 

I think this another Auto Manufacturer doing their market research and identifying large engined off-road vehicles are not really wanted in the UK / Europe by the majority.  They do want SUVs, but with smaller engines.  

 

Whilst the landrover died a natural death due to the Grandad Rules, notice there is no replacement and nothing planned as Marketing departments have deemed the general public do not want such a utilitarian vehicle.

 

I'm sure my view will change when I see the JL in the flesh...  

[V]

4 hours ago, fen01 said:

 

I appreciate why the cost is high: production costs, import duties etc..  but this places what is in effect a utility SUV in the luxury SUV market bracket.

 

 

Production and import costs have nothing to do with it, the Wrangler is probably a sub-£20K vehicle with a price hike made easy by leasing. As soon as the majority of customers paying for a new vehicle opt for leasing instead of ownership the manufacturer and their wedded leasing company together can keep raising the new price to inflate the residual values to benefit leasing. As long as people believe a Wrangler is actually worth what they are paying for it, leases will be purchased on new and used models. People buying to own look at the price carefully and realise that it is unreal.

 

The big downside to this type of leasing model on modern cars is that it creates artificially high value used vehicles. These also have artificially expensive repair parts based on the cost of the new vehicle but the vehicles themselves aren't actually built to last more than 10 years even if the residual values look like they do. That creates a problem for the third user (the one that buys to own) as they are likely to be facing a serious financial loss as their once slowly depreciating asset finally has it's value fall off a cliff just at the time when they have to repair or replace all of the failing electronics. The perfect opportunity to stimulate demand for more leasing - scrapping expensive to repair vehicles.

 

[fen01]

If we take Land Rover as an example Range Rovers cost around 50% to manufacture against what they sell for.  The sales price is down to the market segment they are going for.  

 

I agree the jeep may only cost around £20k to produce.  They sale price will be dictated to by the market area within Europe.  Other then the G-Wagen there is no real competition for it in Europe..

[frozenstarz]

watching the jlwrangler forums, jeep are slowly bumping up the prices of the JL, expecially the JLUR due to such demand there. likely jeep will think same for europe and UK, regarding the engines, well you might say no market for large engines but look at how well the v6 armarok and 3.2 ranger are doing.  the rubicon is such a niche i think the 3.6 should stay here in the uk however it may come with the 3.0l v6 diesel in 2019 which imo be a much better engine than the petrol for what its designed for. 

[frozenstarz]

20 hours ago, fen01 said:

 

 

I agree the jeep may only cost around £20k to produce.  They sale price will be dictated to by the market area within Europe.  Other then the G-Wagen there is no real competition for it in Europe..

 

that is also a big factor, but again, hoping, due to the demand from chealsea drivers, the JL might be in enough demand that the market initially gets quite a few JK models onto it.

[Volant165]

On 14/07/2018 at 21:56, frozenstarz said:

hey all

 

recently been thinking come back to the jeep family, been looking at the jku's and wondering wether the arrival of the jl and increased availability will help reduce the current jk prices, i assume they hold so well due to the previous limited supplies to the uk. what do you guys all think? mainly i dont want to buy and next year have lost a chunk of value due to the jl. 

 

cheers

JK's are holding well and especially the 3.6 Petrol will as JL will not offer that option here in the UK. And if you want to mod a JL, probably a good year of learning curve still for the aftermarket. And the little turbo petrol option will cost circa 1500 more than the 3.6 Pentastar 

Increased availability will happen but not in the timeframe you mention above. IMHO.

[fen01]

On 17/07/2018 at 16:45, frozenstarz said:

 

that is also a big factor, but again, hoping, due to the demand from chealsea drivers, the JL might be in enough demand that the market initially gets quite a few JK models onto it.

Sadly Jeep is the wrong brand for Chelsea drivers.  They are more inclined to drive G-Wagens, if they wish to a 4x4 with military pedigree.

 

Most will stick to more traditional Sloane brands.

[Vantastic]

V's comments, on how the car industry has changed, are very well put.

This makes you wonder how long do manufacturers want their cars to last now? As long as they last 3 years then the initial customer is happy, and when they break in the second owners' hands, they get income from expensive spares.

I hate to say it but the days of long lasting cars are also numbered.

Cars are becoming like mobile phones:- own/lease for a contract period then replace with the next great thing.

Kirby the vacuum cleaner company used to (may still do) buy up second hand ones to keep them off the market. A lot of people who bought them new had to have finance, so not only did they sell a vacuum cleaner, they got interest on the loan also.

 

[Vantastic]

15 hours ago, fen01 said:

Sadly Jeep is the wrong brand for Chelsea drivers.  They are more inclined to drive G-Wagens, if they wish to a 4x4 with military pedigree.

 

Most will stick to more traditional Sloane brands.

I do hope that Jeeps stay that way - as I have always seen the "wanna-be landed gentry" in their Range Rovers and X5s who live in a semi on a housing estate as a bit of an anachronism.

And yes, I also live in a semi in a housing estate, but I also have a pickup truck and my Jeep is a long way from a new car.

I have always seen a Jeep as something people chose to buy rather than forced to buy to keep up with the Jones-Smyths next door, or at the gates of the local school.

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by Vantastic

[fen01]

35 minutes ago, Vantastic said:

I do hope that Jeeps stay that way - as I have always seen the "wanna-be landed gentry" in their Range Rovers and X5s who live in a semi on a housing estate as a bit of an anachronism.

And yes, I also live in a semi in a housing estate, but I also have a pickup truck and my Jeep is a long way from a new car.

I have always seen a Jeep as something people chose to buy rather than forced to buy to keep up with the Jones-Smyths next door, or at the gates of the local school.

 

Like you, I live on an estate where most people have 'normal' cars.  I  think people have got used my me trundling around in my JKU..

 

In my vicinity there is 1 guy drives an old (series 2) Range Rover.  He has scoffed at the Jeep and the fact it is not a capable off roader.  I have another guy near me drives a defender 110.  He is in awe of JKU and 'gets it'.

 

The sad thing is, there is another JKU on my estate.  When I've passed them there's no jeep wave.  Nothing.  I put this down to the fact they don't understand as they drive a Kahn conversion.  Which is an attempt at gentrifying the JK.

[AlexK]

On 17/07/2018 at 16:44, frozenstarz said:

i think the 3.6 should stay here in the uk however it may come with the 3.0l v6 diesel in 2019

 

Not a chance, unfortunately.  Jeep is well over their EU-mandated average CO2 targets and are looking at a hefty fine as a result.  That alone rules out the 3.6 coming here.

 

Added to which, FCA will cease all diesel sales from 2022.  With diesel sales having tanked already, there'd be no business case to support homologating it for three years' of tiny sales.

 

Europe is the perfect market for the 2.0-litre turbo with the e-Torq hybrid set-up, but in FCA's continued stupidity, that engine's only offered in the US, where they don't want it.  Literally got that one the wrong way round.