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How long will your Jeep last? Do you care?


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I was reading today about the UK government banning new petrol and diesel cars in 2040. I realised that even though this is 22 years away it will start having an effect sometime soon and may even be on a schedule we have no say in as other countries may have sufficient adoption of alternatives to start increasing the price of petrol and diesel globally as demand for the fuels start to fall.

 

I have got two XJ's, one is 25 the other is 17 years old. I don't intend selling either of them and I could still be driving them in 22 years time. They will probably look a little different to what they do now. Original parts availability will decline and further major modifications will likely be necessary but they are far from standard in any case. I am planning V8 conversions for both of them within the next couple of years but I am wondering now how long will it be that I can use them on petrol or LPG.

 

Having seen big tyres on 15" rims gradually become extinct, 16" going the same way, 17" probably being the dominant wheel size now for functional mud terrains, tyres are going to be my first loss. How long before manufacturers stop making offroad tyres, especially in the sizes I want? Jeep JK and JL are probably driving the offroad tyre market globally at the moment, but pickup trucks will eventually kill off the real offroad tyre and they will be replaced with useless low profile rubber with mud terrain tread for looks (Thanks Nitto). If mandatory tyre age laws come into effect, specialist tyres are either going to get really expensive or they will be superceded with more popular 'similar' tyres.

 

So on my generic endangered automotive species list is:

 

Fuel - Petrol, Diesel, LPG

Functional mud terrain tyres with aspect ratios of 80% or more

Universal joints

7x5 headlamps

Incandescent 12v bulbs

 

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  • Platinum Member

I was reading today about the UK government banning new petrol and diesel cars in 2040. I realised that even though this is 22 years away it will start having an effect sometime soon and may even be on a schedule we have no say in as other countries may have sufficient adoption of alternatives to start increasing the price of petrol and diesel globally as demand for the fuels start to fall.

 

I have got two XJ's, one is 25 the other is 17 years old. I don't intend selling either of them and I could still be driving them in 22 years time. They will probably look a little different to what they do now. Original parts availability will decline and further major modifications will likely be necessary but they are far from standard in any case. I am planning V8 conversions for both of them within the next couple of years but I am wondering now how long will it be that I can use them on petrol or LPG.

 

Having seen big tyres on 15" rims gradually become extinct, 16" going the same way, 17" probably being the dominant wheel size now for functional mud terrains, tyres are going to be my first loss. How long before manufacturers stop making offroad tyres, especially in the sizes I want? Jeep JK and JL are probably driving the offroad tyre market globally at the moment, but pickup trucks will eventually kill off the real offroad tyre and they will be replaced with useless low profile rubber with mud terrain tread for looks (Thanks Nitto). If mandatory tyre age laws come into effect, specialist tyres are either going to get really expensive or they will be superceded with more popular 'similar' tyres.

 

So on my generic endangered automotive species list is:

 

Fuel - Petrol, Diesel, LPG

Functional mud terrain tyres with aspect ratios of 80% or more

Universal joints

7x5 headlamps

Incandescent 12v bulbs

 

The way things are going LED lights (as we know) could be dimmed down:

 

http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/103042/dazzling-car-headlights-under-government-review

 

I did hear over the weekend the government are now looking to phase out all hybrid vehicles which can do less the 50 miles on a single charge..

 

 

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I'd like to add an extinct list -

 

Audio tape players

Overdrive?

 

......and CD players. When we got our new Compass my Mrs was playing with the "infotainment system" ....where do I put the CD in to listen to my music? she asks.  Nope! CDs  :rofl: how completely last decade! you can only play music via your mobile device  :icon_rolleyes:

 

...and also - "pretty much anything you can fix yourself"  :grrrrrr:

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I was reading today about the UK government banning new petrol and diesel cars in 2040. I realised that even though this is 22 years away it will start having an effect sometime soon and may even be on a schedule we have no say in as other countries may have sufficient adoption of alternatives to start increasing the price of petrol and diesel globally as demand for the fuels start to fall.

 

I have got two XJ's, one is 25 the other is 17 years old. I don't intend selling either of them and I could still be driving them in 22 years time. They will probably look a little different to what they do now. Original parts availability will decline and further major modifications will likely be necessary but they are far from standard in any case. I am planning V8 conversions for both of them within the next couple of years but I am wondering now how long will it be that I can use them on petrol or LPG.

 

Having seen big tyres on 15" rims gradually become extinct, 16" going the same way, 17" probably being the dominant wheel size now for functional mud terrains, tyres are going to be my first loss. How long before manufacturers stop making offroad tyres, especially in the sizes I want? Jeep JK and JL are probably driving the offroad tyre market globally at the moment, but pickup trucks will eventually kill off the real offroad tyre and they will be replaced with useless low profile rubber with mud terrain tread for looks (Thanks Nitto). If mandatory tyre age laws come into effect, specialist tyres are either going to get really expensive or they will be superceded with more popular 'similar' tyres.

 

So on my generic endangered automotive species list is:

 

Fuel - Petrol, Diesel, LPG

Functional mud terrain tyres with aspect ratios of 80% or more

Universal joints

7x5 headlamps

Incandescent 12v bulbs

 

I wouldn't worry too much Vince, by that time off road driving will have been made illegal anyway for being unsafe, environmentally unfriendly, politically incorrect and probably also misogynist and "making people uncomfortable", so we won't need off road tyres anyway and Jeeps will just be SUVs for "off road effect" on the school/Tesco run.

 

My Jeeps will hopefully outlast me, but manufacturers ( in general, not necessarily motor manufacturers yet) have no interest in making and supporting a product for the long term, because it makes no sense to do so. In order to keep prices low and manufacturing plants running products have to be built in large batches and then move on to the next model making the old model obsolete. As an example a manufacturer in my industry made a very widely used defibrillator, it came with a 5 year warranty and if it went wrong you got it replaced, if it was out of warranty and it went wrong you bought a new one. No repairs, no spares ( waste of money and shelf space, you can't sell someone a spare) no tech manuals to produce. Even car manufacturers these days don't advertise how much a car is to buy, they tell you how much it is a month. Consumers need to be consumers not owners. Owners don't provide a revenue stream, consumers be it for Netflix, Microsoft office 365 or a new Vauxhall Corsa on PCP over 3 years do.

 

Although sometimes, when my knees hurt from crawling around under the Jeep and my back aches from hoiking the spare onto the tailgate, I wish I was 30 years younger, most of the time I am pretty glad that I'm not. I'll just remain a Grumpy Old Man  :icon_elephant: (closest icon I can get to a dinosaur!)         

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Suspect steering wheels and pedals could also be extinct in self driving / connected vehicles.  Likely to be significant disincentives for people to own / drive their vehicles, such as insurance, fuel and maintenance costs.  Most OEM's are now investing heavily in Mobility as a Service (MaaS) fleet development...

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The world got hit in 2008 with losses caused by US subprime mortgages. Now that most new cars in the USA are obtained on a personal lease basis, there is a boom in subprime car financing. This time around, the finance is on a depreciating asset. Eventually the losses incurred through defaulters are going to stack up on some bank's balance sheet looking for a bailout.

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There are some interesting off road possibilities, though. Battery technology and photovoltaic or fuel cell recharging is certain to be a lot better, and electric motors smaller, lighter and more powerful. Imagine what a motor in each hub could do for articulation and traction; electronic control integrating each wheel and max torque at zero revs, A lightweight vehicle with no central gear/transfer box, drive train and differentials. And 'eco-friendly' enough to see off the anti-green laners.

 

But you're right about no 'fix it yourself'; we're already a long way down that road. And tyres for 20" wheels (current Grand Cherokee and some others) seem only to be available as high speed, summer use, SUV styles in Europe.

 

Interesting times!

 

Gerald

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